Complicating situation, Trump’s electoral needs

By: The Kabul Times

The political situation is very confusing. The US is involved in talks with the Taliban. Reports say that both sides would sign an accord in July and give commitments to each other. But it is clear that at the moment Taliban don’t want peace with the Afghan government and other political forces.
Taliban are trying to take a withdrawal guarantee from the US and then undertake military measures or take inflexible position in talks.
At present no change has appeared in their political ideas. Contrary to Dubandis of India and Pakistan, Taliban are against elections. This group believes in non-elected government that takes it legitimacy from the verdict of religious scholars and call it Islamic System. If this position of Taliban is not amended in talks table, no political force inside Afghanistan is ready to accept it. Even Hekmatyar party that claims is nearer to Taliban ideas, would not be ready to accept a non-elected governments, as at present Hekmatyar is a presidential candidate.
This ideological difference shows that even if an intra-Afghani talks be also started soon, it would not rapidly produce a result. Certain Taliban supporters might believe that the US no longer supports. Republic and Constitution and if she receive a guarantee on war with Al-qaeda, she would be even satisfied with a non-elected government in Afghanistan. But the problem is not simple in this way. Afghanistan needs aids of global and regional countries for instance whether India and EU would assist a non-elected government. It is clear, never. Another important question is this that whether a non-elected government would manage to maintain peace? Experience show that following the collapse of Daud Khan rule, no government managed to prove its general and nationwide legitimacy.
Since 1980, establishment of a broad based and inclusive government has been recommended for Afghanistan. It is clear that such inclusive government cannot be created without electoral legitimacy. Other legitimacy giving sources have lost their reputation. This show that political settlement of Afghanistan war is very complicated and cannot be solved with few meetings.
Another problem is this that the ruling government in the US also has electoral needs. Due to 20 years old war of the US in Afghanistan, the US activities in Afghanistan have been changed to electoral campaign. Trump’s democratic electoral rivals have already explained their opinions on Afghanistan.
Trump certainly needs at least an elementary agreement on political settlement of Afghanistan war in order to be completed until next September of 2020.
Some American diplomats, who are working on political settlement of Afghanistan war, their contracts may be concluded. A number of these diplomats wish to promote in diplomatic apparatus of that country. Their promotion is directly connected to their management in political settlement of Afghan war. If political settlement succeeds, Khalilzad may be a candidate for Noble Peace Prize. All above reasons and factors have caused complication of political situation.
Majority of senior politicians in Kabul also don’t know what changes would happen in upcoming months?
In politics and war, human beings are involved and in most cases their behavior is unpredictable.
Opinions of certain regional powers including India is also very important on this conflict. The US has also talked with Pakistan on Afghan war and probably have reached certain agreements.
The US had inserted Balooch Liberation Movement in the list of terrorist groups, while B.L.M is not a Jehadi and Islamist force. Their cause is separation from Pakistan territory and establishment of an independent country. This B.L.M has no religious and Islamic spirit and cause. It is apparently a secular political movement their caues begins from 1947 and Islamabad accuses India for support of B.L.M.
It seems that the US has told Pakistan that if the US forces be affected the destiny of ex-USSR troops in Afghanistan, Islamabad-Washington relations would be eliminated.
Following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the USSR was overthrown and annihilated. But the US would not be overthrown and annihilated in the wake of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. If even Pakistan doesn’t cooperate it in this stage, the US enjoys this capacity to create problem to Islamabad.
Pakistan also wants to exploit this opportunity. The US might have promised Pakistan that the world community would give legitimacy to its influence in Afghanistan.
India also cannot remain indifference as she has been funding over 500 small and big development projects in Afghanistan worthing multi-hundreds million US dollars. Political culture in the regime has also changed a lot and India cannot watch elimination of its influence in Afghanistan.
These difference of opinions of regional powers have also further complicated the situation. It doesn’t seem that Khalilzad diplomacy of ending the Afghan war would manage to solve this problem in few months.

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